For me, the campaign
for Scottish independence was the most significant, and certainly the most
entertaining, political event of 2014. As Montaigne said, “There are some
defeats more triumphant than victories” and this was perhaps one. The spectacle
of the whole British ruling class hysterically panicking as it realised it had
completely miscalculated the situation was wonderful to behold. Suddenly, it seemed,
trainloads of Labour bigwigs were heading north, sweeteners at the ready! Even
the royals were starting to get narky.
Although the
campaign was ostensibly about independence, it had quickly morphed into a
revolt against free-market capitalism and against privatisation, racism,
austerity and war. Although the ‘impossible’ did not happen, and the union did
not fracture, the referendum gave birth and momentum to a popular movement which
was not narrowly nationalistic but, on its left flank, represented a youthful, working
class revolt against ‘politics as usual’ and towards a more socialistic model.
However, the
main beneficiaries of the independence campaign have been the Scottish National
Party (SNP) and the main losers the Scottish Labour party. SNP membership has
grown to nearly 100,000, while Labour has shrunk to 13,000. Its reward for
getting the Tories and the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) off the hook over independence has been a
collapse in support for Labour across Scotland. The growth of the SNP has
created problems for the far left too, to which I shall return.
But, to be
honest, Labour has been creating the conditions for its own undoing for years,
maybe decades. The arrogant assumption that core Labour voters, not just in
Scotland, but in England and Wales, have nowhere else to go and can therefore
be used during elections but abused as far as protecting their interests is
concerned, could not inform Labour policy indefinitely without consequences.
The decay of
the mainstream parties nationally has been a long-term process. In 1951 Labour
and the Tories won more than 96% of the vote between them, now they struggle to
get 70% at very best. The impact of the 2008 economic crisis has accelerated
this decline, and it has been traditional social democratic parties that are most vulnerable, notwithstanding the ability of right
populist parties like UKIP to also bite into the Tory vote. The pernicious
effects of ‘triangulation’, the decline in influence of unions and other
working-class voices, pressure from the IMF, and Labour’s embrace of the market,
have rendered it largely indistinguishable from other parties that are
ostensibly the ‘organising committees of the ruling class’. For years Britain
has grown an increasingly homogenous politics – in Tariq Ali’s phrase, ‘the extreme
centre’, or, to use George Galloway’s more ribald term, ‘three cheeks of the
same arse’. We have got used to having reformism without reforms for many
years, but now so-called ‘reformist’ parties have completely inverted the
meaning of the word. It no longer means improving the lot of workers, but
making their lives and living conditions harder and more distressing.
It was clear
that this situation could not continue indefinitely. Despite the grip of Labour
on many unions and the completely unwarranted loyalty of many voters to the
party, not to mention the obstacle for small parties of the ‘first-past-the-post’
electoral system, it was clear that the embracing of neoliberalism by left reformism
was eventually going to force workers to seek to protect themselves by other
means and through other institutions, and this is what is happening in
Scotland. Labour trails the SNP by 20 points according to a series of polls for
the 2015 election, and 20 Labour seats are at risk, with even Labour
strongholds like Glasgow vulnerable. It is a downwards trajectory which will be
accelerated by the election of the Trident and Iraq-war supporting Blairite Jim
Murphy as leader of the Scottish Labour party.
The result
of the 2015 election is hugely unpredictable – the most unpredictable in living
memory. The decline in support for the traditional three parties is accompanied
by the entrance of what Toby Helm of the Observer rather melodramatically calls
‘insurgent forces’. On the right is UKIP, in Scotland the SNP, and nationally
also the Greens, up to 6% in many polls and in at least one ahead of the Lib
Dems. Even with ‘first-past-the-post’ some of the smaller parties could well
end up in coalition as power-brokers. What is becoming increasingly clear is
that the mainstream parties will never again rule as they once did. But where
in all this is the socialist left?
In the
absence of a left alternative to Labour, it is UKIP which I heard on the radio
absurdly claiming to be the inheritors of the Levellers, Chartists and
Suffragettes. I nearly choked on my muesli. The 2015 general election presents
the left with a dual challenge –first to mobilise against UKIP’s poisonous
policies and secondly to begin the process of building an united left. That is
why Sheridan is wrong to say there should be no electoral challenge to the SNP
in 2015. The Greens and the nationalists are not anti-capitalist parties:
although we can unite with them against Tory policies, against austerity and
inequality, the nationalists believe in building up capitalism, not taking
power away from the capitalists altogether. The closer they get to power the
more they suck up to big business to show they are market friendly. Already we
have seen Alex Salmond’s willingness to do business with right-wing business
tycoons such as Rupert Murdoch, Brian Souter and Donald Trump. We saw how
Brighton’s Green councillors cut bin workers’ wages and played along with
spending limits imposed by Whitehall, despite being elected on an
anti-austerity ticket.
We cannot
postpone any longer creating a united left pole of attraction, which is why the
Trades Union and Socialist Coalition (TUSC) project is an important one. Even
in Wales, where we are unlikely to get any significant votes, being squeezed by
the Communist party, the Socialist Labour party and Plaid Cymru, it is the
process of the Socialist Party and the Socialist Workers Party working together
with others in an united fashion which is important. We need in the medium term
to combine with wider forces, linking up where possible with Left Unity,
ideally with a major trade union or two breaking from Labour and putting its
resources into building a political alternative. Right now this sounds like pie
in the sky, but if Labour does badly in 2015 who knows what could happen? These
are unpredictable times, and politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum.
This erosion
of support for the traditional parties is an European-wide phenomenon. Not just Britain, but Ireland,
Greece and Spain all have general elections due not later than the next 18
months, In Greece the coalition government has already fallen, triggering an election
which could well see the radical left party Syriza - now 5 to 10 percent ahead
of the ruling conservative New Democracy party - come to power. Some polls in
the Irish Republic put Sinn Fein narrowly ahead of both the ruling Fine Gael
party and the once dominant party of Irish capitalism, Fianna Fail. And in
Spain two recent polls put the newly-formed left-wing Podemos on 27.7 and 28.3
percent, beating both the main opposition PSOE Socialist Party and the ruling
conservative Popular Party.
The fracturing
of the old order is leading to political polarisation and fragmentation across
Europe. If the left cannot seize the opportunities open to it, then other
forces will be ready to benefit. The stakes are high as we enter the new year,
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